Polymarket Elon Tweets
Paper trading experiment - validation in progress
Record
4W / 14L
18 trades
Hit Rate
22%
paper trades
P&L
$-363
paper money
Drawdown
89%
from peak
Experiment Status
Testing a hypothesis: buy top 4 bins when market is 25% through lifecycle and no clear leader exists. Results so far are not good. Watching for pattern changes.
Live Market
Spike Detection
Recent Markets
| Date Range | Winner | Tweets | Regime | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 - Dec 2, 2025 | 260-279 | 270 | NORMAL | $16.5M |
| Nov 28 - Dec 5, 2025 | 240-259 | 250 | NORMAL | $15.6M |
| Dec 2 - Dec 9, 2025 | 420-439 | 430 | SPIKE | $19.6M |
| Dec 5 - Dec 12, 2025 | 440-459 | 450 | SPIKE | $13.3M |
| Dec 9 - Dec 16, 2025 | 260-279 | 270 | NORMAL | $16.7M |
| Dec 12 - Dec 19, 2025 | 260-279 | 270 | NORMAL | $32.8M |
| Dec 16 - Dec 23, 2025 | 340-359 | 350 | SPIKE | $21.9M |
| Dec 19 - Dec 26, 2025 | 340-359 | 350 | SPIKE | $15.8M |
Normal (240-280 tweets)
Spike (340+ tweets) - 43% of weeks